Stock Picks Updates
HavRx Stock Indexes: Updated Performance Stats (IBB, rated BUY)
<font> Top performing indexes as of 3/10/10 include Regulatory Catalyst (+76.7%), Emerging Cancer Dx / Tx (+81.1%), Generic Drugs (+61.8%), Health Benefit Providers (+46.7%), Tobacco (+41.9%), and Air Transport (+97.3%). </font> <font> HavRx Stock Indexes : Performance Tracking Start Date, # Stocks, Last Price, % Chg </font> Healthcare Stock Indexes (13) Regulatory Catalyst 6/21/09 90 $1,767.05 76.7% Non-Health Stock Indexes (5) Global Clean-Tech 6/21/09 57 $1,298.80 29.9% So here is the short story: VirnetX Holding Corp. issues some warrants on March 13, 2009 and the stock then trades at $1.20 and nothing really happens with the volume near and after this magic March 13. The warrants are issued for pennies between $0.17-0.40 (depending on B&S calculation) and can be exchanged to common stock at $2, $3, $4 and in fact VHC stock hits all this benchmarks and company raises this way $11,000,000 because all the strikes are in the money. The most advanced t.a. charts on VHC: <font> http://is.gd/9QZuH www. <font> is.gd/9QZuH </font> </font> By now we are all in agreement. Obama wants to transform America into a mirror image of a China. Did you know China said F ethanol? Most Communist countries like Norway, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia are able to exist by taxing the resources. Their ratio of raw resources to people are much lower than that of the USA. Socialist countries like Canada are in a similar position. The truth is if these countries allow freedom the wealth of the people would far surpass the USA. In a Communist society each person is a drain on the resources. This is why England kills its weaker citizens. In a society that allows Freedom to flourish each citizen is an asset to society that has the gull to demand rights. This is why Obama wants to kill you. China is different than most Communist counties. It's ratio of resources to people is similar to the USA. They have tried fixing the "problem" thru population control, but to no avail. They tried the "green" energy route. But when you are Communist with the USA ratio of resources to people you cannot play with fire. China quickly learned that ethanol always demanded more energy to produce than it produce. It could not feed the Communist black hole and the ethanol lie at the same time. China ditch ethanol for organic diesel from soybeans. The difference is no massive amount of energy needs to go into creating nitrogen base fertilizer. No longer is China facing the paradox when oil goes up you don't save money because the cost to produce the fertilizer goes up just as much. All the cool heads in the world could call Obama a nimrod. But when his role model calls him this. He will finally listen. Ethanol mandates WILL BE ROLLED BACK to fight inflation. <font> </font> http://www.mikehavrx.com/blog/bid/17378/CLSN-Griffin-Rates-Ce... Global Phase 3 HEAT Study under SPA: for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common form of primary liver cancer under SPA, expects to complete enrollment 3Q10, interim efficacy data 2H10 (upon 190 events), NDA filing 1Q11 First Stage (Phase I/II) of Pivotal DIGNITY Clinical Trial: Expects data from first stage of recurrent chest wall (RCW) breast cancer 4Q10, expected completion of patient enrollment in the pivotal RCW study during 2H11 Pending Phase 2 Clinical Trial: Expects to begin Phase 2 study 2H10 in combo with Radio-frequency Ablation (RFA) for treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases Disclosure: No positions. mikehavRx.com Publishing, LLC is not compensated or incentivized in any way to write about, feature, or distribute reports and other information about public-traded companies. Please contact me if you would like to submit reports for possible distribution at http://www.mikehavrx.com/
Diabetes Care 11/19/09 35 $1,174.72 17.5%
Cosmetic / Restorative Medicine 6/24/09 77 $1,331.59 33.2%
Life Science Leaders 12/15/09 25 $1,026.99 2.7%
Natural Health 12/15/09 52 $1,059.33 5.9%
Immune Therapy / Vaccines 12/15/09 49 $1,201.35 20.1%
Emerging Cancer Dx / Tx 6/21/09 72 $1,811.49 81.1%
Global Generic Drugs 6/24/09 73 $1,618.29 61.8%
Global Health IT 6/24/09 55 $1,265.26 26.5%
Global Hospitals 6/28/09 50 $1,304.94 30.5%
Stem Cells 6/22/09 48 $1,254.04 25.4%
Health Benefit Providers 6/21/09 50 $1,466.86 46.7%
Global Crop Science 12/17/09 48 $1,109.02 10.9%
Global Railroad Industry 6/24/09 46 $1,311.06 31.1%
Global Tobacco Industry 6/21/09 21 $1,419.25 41.9%
Global Trucking / Logistics 6/24/09 47 $1,256.94 25.7%
Global Air Transport 6/24/09 49 $1,972.87 97.3%
mikehavRx.com Index Updates Service Debut (SPY, rated BUY)
mikehavRx.com Index Updates is a premium service that provides investors with time-saving information and updates on unique global baskets of stocks, including the actively managed Regulatory Catalyst Index that includes daily updates on select pending binary events within the healthcare sector such as FDA decisions and clinical trials.
www.mikehavRx.com
The actively managed HavRx Regulatory Catalyst Index tracks the performance of select companies which meet any of the following requirements: (1) pending new drug, biological agent, medical device, or diagnostic product applications at the FDA; (2) pending pivotal clinical trial results that are designed to support a new filing or resubmission for FDA marketing clearance; and (3) pending early stage clinical study results. Categories (1) and (2) will comprise two-third (67%) or greater of all index components while companies with pending early stage clinical trial results will comprise one-third (33%) or less of all index components.
The service is provided in the form of PDF files at the subscriber home page which can be accessed upon successful log-in. Currently, 20 PDFs are available to premium subscribers, including 17 files for each of the passively managed index components and three files for the Regulatory Catalyst Index, including one sorted by company name, one sorted by catalyst date, and one sorted by stock price that will updated daily on regular business / market days.
Mar 10 - Before the Open (SPY, rated HOLD)
Today's Before the Open
This week's Economic Numbers and Earnings Reports
ChartBook / ETFs
by Jason at Leavitt Brothers
Banco SantanderChile (SAN) is a BUY
Banco Santander Chile, together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial and retail banking products and services primarily in Chile. The company?s deposit products include time deposits, demand deposits, and checking accounts. It also offers Chilean peso and foreign currency denominated loans to finance various commercial transactions, trade financing, foreign currency forward contracts, and credit lines; retail banking services, including mortgage financing; and commercial and consumer loans, residential and general mortgage loans, and foreign trade loans. In addition, the company provides various financial services, including financial leasing, financial advisory services, mutual fund management, securities brokerage, insurance brokerage, and investment management. As of December 31, 2008, it operated a network of 477 branches. The company was founded in 1977 and is based in Santiago, Chile. Banco Santander Chile is a subsidiary of Santander Spain
Consumer Spending (M, rated BUY)
Although the housing market has not recovered fully yet, consumer spending looks good and has been solid for several months now.
The economic data my be mixed a little, but my technical analysis says that this is a good buy and it's showing a promising up trend, which should hold for a few months at the very least.
Although this is a good buy, enter carefully with a small percentage of your portfolio.
VirnetX Holding Corp. WHERE CORP. AND HOLDING IS ONLY THE NAME, MAKE $240 MILLION TODAY (VHC, rated SELL)
And all would be great and fine till you don't look at a chart (no t.a. or quant compley black box otc thinking is needed please, only simple black&white common sense) and then immediately VHC balance sheet.
On a chart even my parrot Barbados could see that insiders or their cronies used trickery to manipulate the stock price to cash in on warrants.
On July 31, 2009 about 4,000,000 shares change hands (hot potato) and stock moves from few days before $1.40 to $3 and then slowly climbs to $4 and very fast it reaches $7 and then the same thing happens again (hot potato) on the same volume stock starts to crash in one day reaching low of $4.10 but closes at $6. So if insiders know there is no value in this shares, why you are still waiting instead of selling this stock short and cashing in on this rare opportunity where even parrot Barbados is in the money.
Palm Inc (PALM) Conversion stagnates extremely down to $ 3,90 ? (PALM, rated SELL)
. Palm Inc (PALM) Conversion stagnates extremely Objective of the course: $ 3,90 ? Recent revelations of disappointing sales of its Palm Pre hand-held device have hurt the Company's stock. The Company now expects revenue for the third quarter to total between $300 million and $320 million, compared with analysts' mean estimate of $420 million. Previous guidance of revenue of between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion for fiscal 2010 is very unlikely to be reached. . http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/getChart?webmasterId=897... . YM
What will the Communist Man-boy do? (TNH, rated SELL)
Arris Group - The Siphonic Flush of Management (ARRS, rated SELL)
Believe it or not, we are simple blue collar investors that for the most part, still have our own teeth, and in some cases, almost all of our own hair. We haven't really wanted to be anything other than what we are, average folks just trying to save a few dollars for the day we may need a cane.
Since we are fairly simple minded investors, we have a fairly simple investment philosophy; determine a reasonable value estimate for a stock, buy the stock at a discount to our reasonable value estimate, sell some of the stock along the way, and close our position when the stock reaches our reasonable value estimate.
There are a great many investment philosophies floating around the internet, some that are simple and some that are, at least to us, very confusing. We came across a site last week that screens stocks based on something. What that something is we aren't quite sure. We knew it was based on something because when we hit the screen button, it returned a list of stocks. We thought that was pretty clever.
The site said the user should hit the screen button, then build a portfolio of 20 stocks from the list returned, and then sell them after one-year. Once sold, investors should repeat steps one through three. We assume by the time someone would get get to step four they will be on easy street and no longer a subscriber to the website.
We followed the screen instructions and then randomly selected a company just to see if there was any validity at all to yet another investment philosophy. The company we selected was Arris Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS ).
Basis
Financial information related to the Arris Group, that is contained in this report, is based on the company's most recent Form 10-K filing for fiscal year ending December 31, 2009 as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 26, 2010.
What They Do
The company is a global communications technology company, headquartered in Suwanee, Georgia that operates in three business segments, Broadband Communications Systems, Access, Transport and Supplies, and Media and Communications Systems.
The company specializes in integrated broadband network solutions that include products, systems and software for content and operations management (including video on demand, or VOD), and professional services.
They claim they are a leading developer, manufacturer and supplier of telephony, data, video, construction, rebuild and maintenance equipment for the broadband communications industry.
In addition, they claim they are a leading supplier of infrastructure products used by cable system operators to build-out and maintain hybrid fiber-coaxial (“HFC”) networks.
Short-Term Investment
The stock closed recently at $11.43, and according to the trend line we found, has recently entered an uptrend and currently has an RS rating of 71, meaning that over the past 13 weeks the price of this stock is higher than 71% of the stocks trading on all exchanges.
In our opinion, short-term investors should have taken a position in this stock the last week in January when the stock was oversold, instead of over the past week, driving the stock to an overbought condition.
With first resistance at $11.62 a 2% increase from the stock's recent close, and first support at $10.67, a 7% decline from the stock's recent close, we think the time for a short-term trade is a thing of the past.
Long-Term (5 Year Hold) Investment
We have to admit, we were impressed with the company's current ration at 5, its quick ratio at 4+, and its cash ratio at 3+. To us, these ratios far exceed what we consider investment quality.
We were also impressed with the company's return on invested capital number at 38%, something we seldom see above 25% in today's economic environment.
As impressed as we were with some of the company's financials, there were several areas that reminded us that management needs to stop scratching its collective stones and become more involved.
For instance, the company ended fiscal 2009 with free cash flow of $1.33, which is lower than what we would consider investment quality.
We also noticed that other free cash flow numbers we like to look at such as free cash flow to equity and free cash flow to the firm, had fairly significant year over year swings, something we don't like to see, and something we interpret as indecisiveness on the part of management.
We were equally unimpressed that the company's receivables were outstanding an average of 49 days and while the company's payables were outstanding an average 32 days. Hello management people!!! Can you spell FREE MONEY???
Lastly, we noticed that the company ended fiscal 2009 with total debt of $226 million on which they paid an average interest rate of almost 8%.
Considering that interested rates are reasonably low at present, we have to wonder why management would allow the company to spend more than $2 million on stock repurchases instead of applying those dollars to debt reduction, something would benefit shareholders much more over the longer term.
Final Thoughts
We think the stock has long-term appreciation potential in the $25 to $27 range. But as we noted, at this point we aren't real big fans of management, believing they simply have no clue about the day to day operation of the company they are charged with managing. This of course makes us wonder about an investment in the stock.
Normally we would require at least a 50% discount to our reasonable value estimate before we would consider investing in a stock, which would place our placing our normal entry target for this stock in the $12.50 to $13.50 range.
But because we don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about management, we think a larger discount is required and so have reduced our normal entry target to $10.
In the end, a company may have the greatest products in the world and a market share that is the envy of an industry.
Yet, if its management can't find its way off of the executive crapper long enough to notice the simple things going on with the business it is managing, perhaps its time for the company's investors to f lush and start over with clean water.
Wax
For the Wax Ink Arris Group Raw Value worksheet, please click here .
$CLSN: Griffin Rates Celsion Buy, $10 Price Target (CLSN, rated BUY)
Griffin Securities issued an update research report for Celsion (NASDAQ: CLSN) earlier this week with a buy rating and raised its 12-month price target to $10 per share, compared to an intra-day stock price of $3.80 per share today for the Company. Celsion is an active component in the HavRx Regulatory Catalyst and Emerging Cancer Dx / Tx Indexes . Below is a summary of the mid to late-stage clinical development programs for ThermoDox (Lyso-Thermosensitive Liposomal Doxorubicin):