| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
Complacency Indicator
If you haven't heard of the technical indicator with the stock market symbol VIX it is now time to pay some attention to it. When the number is running low, as it is now, around 15 to 18 it means everyone is happy and thinks the stock market is going to continue up or at least continue on its current path and there is no need to sell anything. This is a measure of complacency. When the number goes above 35 it means everyone is very nervous and thinks the market is going to fall. It is considered a contrarian indicator. Wall Street calls this the Volatility Index which disguises its real underlying meaning. What it really should be called is the FEAR and GREED Index. The average investor buys with a greed motive when the VIX is low and sells only after fear sets in when the number is high because he is afraid of further loss. These are emotional moments and the market is an emotional animal. The truly smart investor has a planned exit strategy before he buys anything; he knows when to sell even before he buys. Notice that the higher and smoother the movement of the market the more complacent the investors become. The investor becomes overconfident that his stocks will always go up. It is a truism that investors buy with only thoughts of how much they will make and never consider that it is possible to lose. When I was a broker and a member of the exchange I would only keep customers who would place stop-loss orders as soon as they bought something. I always stressed protection of capital. When you are a serious and reasoning investor you must always think about loss first. If what you buy goes up you don't have to worry. Winning takes care of itself. Losses don't. As of March 26, 2004 the VIX can now be traded like a stock. If the VIX is currently 18.5 the value of the contract is $18,500 and trades in $10 increments. It can be very volatile; a move from 18 to 38 can make (or lose if you are short) $20,000. This is not for the feint of heart and should be left to the professional speculators. When you look at the historical charts and run a comparison of both the VIX and the S&P500 Index you will see the inverse correlation. As the S&P goes up the VIX goes down and visa versa. There are many technical indicators that are used to determine market direction and this is just one of the many. It can be part of your analysis if you are a technician along with moving averages, various ratios and other stratagems. Whatever you do do NOT become complacent about the money you have invested in your 401K or any other stock market investment. Protection of your capital is always your first consideration. Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't BuyIt!" has helped thousands of people make moneyand keep their profits with his simple 2-stepmethod. Read the first chapter athttp://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Streetdoes not want you to know. Copyright 2005
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
The Big Bad Bear The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. Red, Green, Yellow - or - Stop, Go, Go Very Fast: Which Describes Your Online Trading? Ever notice how behavior in one area of life can apply to behavior in other areas of life? For example, I've noticed a number of things while driving that apply to online trading. One of them is regarding how people behave toward traffic signals. How To Beat The Mutual Fund Companies At Their Own Game You'd have had to be living on a desert island with no TV, newspaper or internet connection to have missed hearing about the great mutual fund scandal of 2003.The issue was that some mutual fund companies allowed certain hedge funds to engage in after-hours trading, sometimes incorrectly referred to as market timing. How to Make Big Money Safely in Stock Market (1) Stock Market is Tough Place to Make Any Money ConsistentlyNASDAQ or SP&500 averaged about -6% per year for 5 years between 1999 and 2003. Many individual investors who made killing in the internet bubble period got wiped out during those 5 years. Keep Your Profits It looks like we have now entered a new bull phase in the stock market and I have a question for you. Will you give back the profits that you make this time as you did in 2000? You sure don't want to, but you are not going to get any help from your broker. True Investment Road Maps If you don't know where you are going any road will get there. After you get there you might not like where you ended up. Discover the Biggest Trading & Investing Online Mistake Any online investor / trader seeks an excellent off or online future trading career opportunity. Despite this goal, did you know 95 percent of all traders go broke within the first two months? Why do investors lose vast amounts of wealth in one or more of the following markets - option trading, forex trading or currency trading, stock trading, future or commodity trading etc? in such a short amount of time?Most online investors / traders interact in devastating forms of thinking, which convinces the mind to the point where the trader believes that an educational enhancement ability that develops superb market research skills is not important. Lights of the Stock Market There are red lights, green lights, blue lights and spot lights. There are orange lights, pink light and flash lights. Online Investing & Online Stock & Share Trading: Difficulty in Taking Stop Losses in the Market This is an extract of an article which was first printed in Daryl Guppy's Newsletter Tutorials in Applied Technical Analysis on 26 March 2005 and is reprinted here with his permissionA stop loss is a predetermined exit point. When a trade is first planned, the stop loss is designed to protect the trader's capital. No Load Mutual Funds: Boost Your Portfolios Returns Investors who exclusively use broadly diversified, no load mutual funds for their stock investments often lose out on opportunities to increase the reward potential of their portfolios. This article looks at two methods investors may use to enhance the performance of their portfolio of diversifed, no load mutual funds. How to Read an Annual Report Every publicly traded company is required by the SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission) to provide annual reports to it's shareholders, and the general public as well. These annual reports contain very important financial information, as well of summaries of the companies progress made by the CEO, board members, etc. Zero Sum Game Most people think the stock market is a zero sum game because there is a buyer for each seller and seller for each buyer so each cancels the other and everything is equal. Not quite. The Secret Art of Backtesting If you have not back tested your trading system, you might as well trade with your eyes close. In fact, whatever technical analysis criterion you use to trade with, be it moving averages, candle sticks, volatility breakouts, fibonacci retracements or any other trading system you have devised you're going to need to back test your trading system thoroughly and objectively in order to remove any possible doubt about it's capability. Moving Averages Every day on CNBC-TV they show a 200-day moving average line superimposed on the stock price history. It seems they give great credence to this manufactured line as it represents 10 months of price action. NASDAQ 800? In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share. Investment Clubs Because you don't feel too sure about which stock or mutual fund to buy you decide to become a member of an investment club. Each of the members contribute a certain amount of money each month and then meet to decide what to buy or sell. What is a Trading Plan - and Why You Need One? How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?I am glad you asked.. Municipal Bonds Because there are so many stocks that are NOT paying dividends and also going down people are looking for a safe investment that will pay a decent return and also won't lose money. Slowly folks are beginning to think about bonds of which there are all kinds. It Cant Be Done Wouldn't it be nice if you were only in the stock market when it was going up and have everything transferred to cash while it is going down? It is called 'market timing' and your broker or financial planner will tell you "it can't be done". What that person just told you is he doesn't know how to do it. Inertia One of the basic laws of physics is that a body in motion will remain in motion unless disturbed by another force. What has this to do with the stock market?For the last 2 years the long-term trend of the market has been down with a few momentary deviations.
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |