| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
Oil Stocks CHK WLL - What Is Their Worth?
(1) CHK stock price $16.74, NAV $32.5 CHK is my favorite oil or natural gas stock. Here is updated Net Asset Value (NAV) table from CHK July 2004 earning release: Table CHK PV-10 per share NAV vs Natural gas price N Gas price NAV per share $4.50 $16.11 $5.00 $19.60 $5.50 $23.11 $6.00 $26.61 $6.50 $32.5 PE = 10 or 10% of earning yield is considered reasonable valuation for non-growing business. PV-10 Net Asset Value (NAV) is standard calculation for value of oil or natural gas reserve assuming current production cost and expenses. When N gas price = $4.5, CHK will make $1.611 per share per year true profit with current production/exploration expenses. CHK is worth $16.11 at $4.5 gas price in this case. We can imagine that as if CHK is a bank deposit account, the interest rate is 10%, if we deposit $16.11 principle there, each year we get 10% interest returns or $1.611 interest per year. For the 1st half of 2004, natural gas price was between $5 and $7 averaging at $6.0. Natural gas price was as high as $9 in later half of 2004. CHK stock price is still below $17 recently and its reported quarterly net income severely under-estimated its true profitability. * Margin of Safety - CHK Wall Street analysts have been predicting significantly lower N. gas price or oil price in 2-3 years ahead. Therefore, CHK or the whole oil and gas stocks are trading as if N. gas price between $4 - $5 range or oil price between $20 - $30 range. First of all, I disagree that oil or natural gas will go down much from here. Inflation, weak dollar, China and US strong economy justifies the current high energy price. Energy price will stay high for quite long term. Wall Street analysts are still living in past memory of low oil price in 1990's world. In fact, current oil price is still at half of price of 1970's peak if we adjust inflation from then. Second of all, even if I am wrong and wall street analysts are right, and natural gas price crashing down to $4.5 or oil price crashing down below $30 in next 2-3 years, CHK current stock price has already factored in such low energy price (see above table). Third, the NAV value is a moving target. Specifically for CHK, NAV is growing at 20% to 25% per year recently. * CHK - NAV growth 20% or $3 per share per year Neither CHK nor WLL pay dividend. They all reinvest their profit into acquiring or drilling for more oil or gas reserve. Therefore, reserve based NAV adjusted by cash or debt reflect true net asset value for the stock. Reserve based NAV increase per year reflect their true earning of business. CHK NAV value per share has been growing at 20% - 25% per year rate or $3 per share currently. Even if energy stocks continue to trade at current low valuation to its true earnings, CHK stock price is likely to increase 20% - 25% return per year just due to its NAV increase. If Wall Street finally accept high energy price as norm in the future, then CHK can reward shareholders even more. CHK mainly achieved this excellent operation performance by following measures: Low cost drilling and fast organic production growth. Current quarter yearly organic production growth is 11%. This is one of highest in the industry. Excellent acquisition track record. Over past few years, CHK has been able to dramatically increase production of acquired property in short term so that CHK's acquisitions have been accretive to current shareholders. Even though the latest acquisition is slightly dilutive in per reserve basis, it is expected to be accretive in cashflow or earning basis. Successful out-performing hedging program. CHK has been able to obtain above industry hedging prices over past years. CHK is not locked into long term contract of low prices as many do. For the current quarter CHK realized a low gas price due to past hedging so that their earning per share is flat compared to last year. CHK hedging is light in 2005 or beyond so that higher price can be expected in 2005 or beyond. (2) WLL stock price $31, NAV $63 WLL is trading at discount even to private acquisition price and very low multiples to its cashflow. WLL also has very experienced management team with long track record in oil gas business. WLL reported $63 per share PV-10 NAV at latest quarterly earning report. Currently WLL is trading significantly below its PV-10 NAV value. In fact, WLL is trading at big discount to its peers too. WLL is trading at $1.32 per Mcfe reserve. The current average industry acquisition price was $1.5 per Mcfe reserve over past 1.5 years. For the 1st half of 2004 WLL generated 18% of annualized return after replacing all the reserve depletion. The recent acquisition of $44 million acquisition is accretive at $1.11 Mcfe per reserve cost. It is accretive in either reserve , cashflow or revenue basis. With more accretive deals like this, WLL NAV growth can be 20% per year or more instead. The recent 2 quarters reported yearly organic production of only 2%, much lower than expected 5% - 10% growth. However, production growth is over-rated performance measurement in Wall Street. Most importantly, WLL did not waste any money into over-spending. WLL simply did not spend extra expected drilling capex. WLL reserve replacement drilling cost was still low. From investor point of view, even if WLL production growth is not as good as CHK, WLL NAV can still grow at 18% to 20% per year with smart accretive acquisition and low cost drilling. (3) Conclusion I continue to like WLL and CHK. I continue to hold WLL CHK in Blast Investor Real-time Plus model portfolio. Article by Henry Lu of BlastInvest LLC, a premium investment newsletter publisher in Connecticut. Visit http://www.BlastInvest.com for FREE "how-to" investing assistance, web services and more.
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Understanding the Bulls and the Bears If you've ever flipped on the television to CNN Financial or paged through the finance section of your local newspaper, you may have seen or heard references made to "the bulls and the bears." If you didn't know what was meant by those terms, you're about to find out. Oil Stocks As A Long Term Investment The demand for world oil is increasing while world reserves are decreasing. This is a known fact. Political Investing We have two candidates for president that have really different ideas on how to make the economy grow.Bush believes in the entrepreneurial approach. Selection Vs Direction As I have said many times before in this column it really doesn't make any difference what you buy - stocks, funds or indexes - it takes smarts to know when to sell. Direction of the general market is more important than selection of any equity. Maximizing a Stock Market Investment Maximizing a stock market investmentThere are several factors an investor in the stock market should consider for a maximum return on an investment:1. All stock purchases should be commission-free. Market Timing Every broker and financial planner will tell you that you cannot time the stock market. I saw John Bogle, the great seer of Vanguard, on CNBC saying it can't be done. Trading For A Living How many times have you said to yourself, "I'd like to quit this job and just make a living trading in the stock market"? Well, maybe you can, BUT.. The Importance of Using Stop Loss Orders When Spread Trading the Financial Markets A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders Stop losses are market orders designed to allow you to limit your losses.When you place a stop loss you are instructing the spread betting company or stock broker to cut your position when it reaches a certain loss level (or in some cases, profit level - more later). Inverted Interest Rates Inverted interest rates? What's that? Who cares? Even if you don't understand what Mr. Greenspan is saying (and almost nobody does) it is important to you because it could mean you might lose you job next year or have to cut back on some of the things you want to acquire. Where Is The Rabbit? We need a rabbit!This was a pretty horrible week for the market with two 100-point days and Friday closing on the lows.During these past few days Sir Alan told us things are looking up and the economy is basically strong. Low Expense Ratio One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds is to tell how low their expense ratio is and that you will make a great deal more money if you buy and hold with them. Partly true, but that is not the whole story. Lemmings Are Gathering Before they go over the cliff to their destruction these little furry ones get together for a party and celebration. Each tells the other how smart he has been with his investments and buying and selling of stocks and realestate. No Load Mutual Funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)? If you are fed up with early redemption charges and ever increasing mutual fund management fees on top of bad-performing fund managers, read on. There is a quiet revolution going on in the no-load mutual fund industry and you, the individual investor, may benefit from it greatly. Its A Bull, Its A Bear, Its Suptertrader! The higher the market goes the more confusing are the "experts". In the September 14 issue of Investor's Business Daily newspaper we find the great prognosticators such as:Sheldon Jacobs, editor of No-Load Fund Investor newsletter quoted that he is recommending having more cash in your portfolio. On Line Stock Trading: Small Cap & Micro Stocks Go Up and Down - How Can You Profit? Success in small cap & micro cap stock trading like with any other business in life comes from being able to see the big picture and from paying attention to the small details.Let's say for example that you are a business owner and you have a jewelry store on a given street just like the guy in the other corner does, but still the other guy is making 5 times more profits than you are only because he's doing something different. Trading Systems To become a successful trader you must have some kind of method or system to follow that will keep you on track. You may be buying and selling on tips, the weather or phases of the moon (there is a system like that). How Commodity Trading Differs from Stock Trading There are major differences between trading stocks and trading futures. While stories of fortunes made or lost overnight on the futures markets are largely untrue, the futures trader, if using a sound trading system, can usually make more money on the futures market and make it much faster. How Much Information Do You Need? You have decided to buy some stock or mutual funds, but wonder which one to buy. You need more information so you call your broker for advice. Analyzing Growth Stocks: An Important Focus For Any Investor Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor. This is especially important, since stocks are an irreplaceable part of any good investment plan, and since unbiased stock research is hard to find. Long Term Financial Vehicles Investing in long-term financial vehicles give you the most gains but it also puts your funds at greater risk. There is much truth to the saying, "there is no gain if there is no risk".
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |