| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
Trade Stocks for Real
I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why. Back testing and paper trading seem to be the most over emphasized techniques offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market fakes. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully. It's simple, place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn't, you have no worries because you can't lose. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don't fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual simulation portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don't prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with. Don't worry about back testing for 20 years because historical back testing is never very accurate. The most accurate testing is real time. If you can back test real trades (actual trades that you have made in the past), then this would be just as good as real time testing (or forward testing). Back testing can get you somewhat of an idea of how your system will perform but there is no emotional attachments to this type of testing so it is not realistically accurate. We all know emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through real testing. Learn to ignore the talking heads and the people on TV and that internet chat room that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it real so you try to learn something, maybe money management. I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn't care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out. I did allow margin because I use margin in my account but I saw other investors abusing the fake power of margin in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable. As a fellow investor, keep testing your system in real time and you will know what works and what doesn't based on real trades, not simulations. Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Back testing may convince some people but I am only convinced with what works now, in real time. Besides, why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? Back testing may be good for some people but I have been testing my systems in real time since the day I started investing seriously. Currently, I am testing the $60-$100 theory using options in my newest account. I will not have concrete data on this system for another year or two, most likely two years down the road. I could back test the system but how will that help me realistically going forward? It won't, it may show me some probabilities and the possible expectancy of the system but it won't guarantee anything until I place a position for real. If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential system. Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Overvalued & Underbought With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings. Forces that Move Stock Prices Among the largest forces that affect stock prices are inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities and currencies. At times the stock market suddenly reverses itself followed typically by published explanations phrased to suggest that the writer's keen observation allowed him to predict the market turn. Stealth Bull If you have been watching the stock market at all you are probably very confused. You are not alone. Smart Day Trading Strategies to Help You Make Money in the Stock Market Stock trading can be a very profitable activity. You can make big amounts of cash in a short period of time. Investing in Trash Company Stocks Refuse is a serious issue in any society, about as serious as cleaning the water and air, even more so to some degree, especially if you study your history with regards to the plague. This is why it is considered one of the better long-term hold stocks to have in one's portfolio. The I Word is Coming to a Town Near You Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc. Stock Analysis I receive emails from Morningstar. This company provides statistics and analysis of just about every publicly traded stock company you can think of as well as voluminous information on mutual funds around the world. Losses, not Profits, will Stop You from Trading in the Market Should the market turn against you, it is important that you design a system that will produce as much loss as you are prepared to take. This loss, known as drawdown, is the maximum amount by which your trading float will temporarily drop at anytime. Defining a Long-Term Investment in the Stock Market For some "long term" would mean holding a stock position over the weekend. For others, it may mean holding a security for at least 1 year for the purpose of declaring a long-term capital gain, thus saving on taxes. Different Types of Mutual Funds This is a guide to the different types of mutual funds. When it comes to investing in mutual funds, investors have literally thousands of choices. VooDoo Training For the Stock Market If you go to Haiti or other places in the Caribbean you may run into the Voodoo tradition of magic. There are long and mostly noisy rituals with the medicine man spouting words that bring great power and conjure up whatever it is the supplicant desires. Inverted Interest Rates Inverted interest rates? What's that? Who cares? Even if you don't understand what Mr. Greenspan is saying (and almost nobody does) it is important to you because it could mean you might lose you job next year or have to cut back on some of the things you want to acquire. Why Buy and Hold? Since I can remember, and that's a long time ago, the Wall Street brokerage companies, mavens and mutual fund managers have been exhorting the mantra of Buy and Hold for all your investments. There have been erudite studies published that this is the only way to go. The Right Mutual Funds For Baby Boomers If you are a baby boomer, time is not on your side. Many baby boomers see retirement age fast approaching with little to nothing in the way of retirement assets that will allow them to actually retire and live a comfortable lifestyle. Kick The Tires Before you buy another car you walk around the lot, kick the tires, slam the doors and look at the mileage indicator. That's an odometer. What Are You Waiting For? Do you own any mutual funds? In an IRA or 401K or wherever. Privately or at work. Why Change Funds? On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and went to a 100% invested position. One of the funds I bought was Robertson Stevens Information Age (RSIFX) and it has made money as have the other six. The Stock Trading Plan - Why You Must Have One To Trade Successfully This is the continuing story of our two imaginary traders, Peter and Paul.Peter is a professional trader, Paul is not. How Much Money Can I Make With Trading? What Account Size Do I Need To Start? What account size do I need?How much money can I make with trading?First of all, let's clarify a common misunderstanding: You never risk your full account size. You always have a "catastrophic stop", and it is important to define the "ruin" before you start trading. A Good Fund Manager Every Wall Street analyst, financial planner and broker will tell you that the right way to pick a mutual fund is find a good money manager of a fund that has a long time record.Yes, I believe that too, but it is amazing that when you go back in time to see what this genius did with the mutual fund, you will find years he has had some terrible losses.
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |